Biggest Slowdown Since 1929
Partially because of the rapid growth in telecommunications and Information Technology we have seen growth parameters including the GDP rising continuously during the 1990’s any beyond. While economic indicators are naturally cyclical, the recent sharp declines on the global scale have far exceeded the expectations of economic experts analysts. In Asia as well as Europe and the USA these declines have been the steepest since 1929.
This unfortunate and however remarkable incident has proved the need of redefining and re-strengthening the current financial chemistry. For instance the biggest bail out package, cuts in CRR up to 150 bps have proved itself insufficient to prevent the steep fall in stock indexes across different global exchanges.
The demise of larger financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers was not totally surprising to everyone. An analysis of Lehman Brothers business model, their policies, lending strategies and basic business practices would seem to make the eventual downfall of the company inevitable. It is strange that with an abundance of danger signals that the fall of the company was not predicted much sooner or at least in time to have done something constructive about it. Instead employees and shareholders were left holding a rather empty bag.
The question arises here is how long and how many times a country or banks would be able to prevent these debacle? Is our strategy of investment or portfolio being adopted is healthy enough to promise a sustainable growth rate. Surprisingly the recent G7 meeting couldn’t find out feasible solutions.
The US and China have been working together to attempt to get tings turned around with perhaps some success. However, even if these to major economic powers experience some success in achieving a recovery, the other Asian and the European countries have to be fully involved in the process.
The practice of instituting financial rescue or bailout packages begs the question as to how long and at what cost will financial institutions and economies be able to withstand the pressure leading to future debacles. While the financial situation is under repair the investor has to review is or her own patterns of investment to determine how, from this time forward, to gain a sustainable growth rate.
So it is really up to the political leaders of the affected countries to step up and cooperate in finding the means not only to reverse the current situation but to prevent a reoccurrence as well. Until that happens the small investor, and perhaps the large investor as well, needs to be very cautions as to where they are putting their money.
We may feel sometimes that a plunge in the stock market affects only the major stockholders, the “big boys”. It is not always apparent that a decline in the stock market means that companies issuing stock suddenly find themselves with insufficient capital to meet their goals. The results can mean decreased production, lower wages, and lost jobs. Eventually these negatives can and will affect the average citizen. As a part of any recovery package the average citizen needs to be educated as to what the big picture means to him or her.
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